6 Jul · 17:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SR
🇺🇦Stepan Rejent
ELO 1517
FormLWWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Rejent
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1515
FormLLLWL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Rejent rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (21)
Fair odds · Rejent
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H40-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.