6 Jul · 20:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1508
FormWLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Jnr
JJ
🇺🇦Jan Simecek Jnr
ELO 1547
FormWLWWL
46%
54%
🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H15-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.