6 Jul · 19:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RM
🇺🇦Roman Merkl
ELO 1508
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kolman
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1523
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
🌟Merkl covers set handicap as underdog 77% (22)
Fair odds · Kolman
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+15
H2H12-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.