6 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
DH
🇺🇦Dominik Horak
ELO 1561
FormLWWWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Vana
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vana
ELO 1593
FormWWLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Vana
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.36· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H1-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.