6 Jul · 21:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JJ
🇺🇦Jan Simecek Jnr
ELO 1547
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Jnr
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1523
FormLLLLL
53%
47%
🌟Kolman covers set handicap as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Jnr
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H4-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.