7 Jul · 10:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AN
🇺🇦Anatolii Nikolenko
ELO 1400
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fokin
IF
🇺🇦Illia Fokin
ELO 1405
FormWLWLW
49%
51%
🌟Fokin rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (17)
Fair odds · Fokin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H11-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.