7 Jul · 13:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OT
🇺🇦Oleksandr Tymofeev
ELO 1590
FormWLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Tymofeev
AT
🇺🇦Andrey Troyan
ELO 1581
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Tymofeev
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H24-24
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.