7 Jul · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VM
🇺🇦Vasyl Matviichuk
ELO 1415
FormLWWLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Honcharenko
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Honcharenko
ELO 1437
FormLLLWW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Honcharenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+22
H2H57-46
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.