7 Jul · 13:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1583
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Riadynskyi
IN
🇺🇦Ivan Nitchenko
ELO 1578
FormWLLLL
51%
49%
🌟Nitchenko stays under total as underdog 77% (13)
Fair odds · Riadynskyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.