7 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Martin Skyba
ELO 1550
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Skyba
LK
🇺🇦Leon Kolman
ELO 1527
FormWLLWL
52%
48%
🌟Kolman covers set handicap as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Skyba
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.