7 Jul · 15:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VL
🇺🇦Viktor Leonov
ELO 1524
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Leonov
MK
🇺🇦Maksym Karelov
ELO 1506
FormWLWLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Leonov
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+18
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.