7 Jul · 09:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
AL
🇺🇦Anatolii Lievshin
ELO 1575
FormLWWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Riadynskyi
YR
🇺🇦Yehor Riadynskyi
ELO 1583
FormLLLLW
49%
51%
🌟Lievshin goes over total as underdog 69% (13)
Fair odds · Riadynskyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H6-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.