7 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FS
🇺🇦Frantisek Schmidtmayer
ELO 1496
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Schmidtmayer
KP
🇺🇦Karel Polak
ELO 1476
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Schmidtmayer
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.