7 Jul · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JP
🇺🇦Jaroslav Puk
ELO 1456
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Polak
KP
🇺🇦Karel Polak
ELO 1476
FormLLLLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Polak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.