7 Jul · 13:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
FS
🇺🇦Frantisek Schmidtmayer
ELO 1496
FormWWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Schmidtmayer
JP
🇺🇦Jaroslav Puk
ELO 1456
FormWWWLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Schmidtmayer
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 75% · 1.34· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.