7 Jul · 12:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PS
🇺🇦Petr Semrad
ELO 1580
FormWWWLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Vana
MV
🇺🇦Martin Vana
ELO 1585
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Vana
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H7-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.