7 Jul · 15:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MH
🇺🇦Martin Holub
ELO 1525
FormWLLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Holub
JJ
🇺🇦Jakub Dufek Jnr
ELO 1482
FormLWWLW
55%
45%
🌟Jnr stays under total as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Holub
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~79 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+43
H2H28-23
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+43)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (28-23)