8 Jul · 04:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ON
🇺🇦Oleksandr Naida
ELO 1462
FormLLLWL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Derevynskyi
DD
🇺🇦Dmytro Derevynskyi
ELO 1550
FormWLWLW
41%
59%
🌟Naida stays under total as underdog 66% (29)
Fair odds · Derevynskyi
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~74 pts
1-3
23%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+88
H2H44-38
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+88)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (44-38)