8 Jul · 11:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
HO
🇺🇦Hryhoriy Oliynyk
ELO 1497
FormWWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Oliynyk
OM
🇺🇦Orest Melnik
ELO 1484
FormLWLWL
51%
49%
🌟Melnik stays under total as underdog 75% (16)
Fair odds · Oliynyk
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 27% · 3.68· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+13
H2H1-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.