8 Jul · 08:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OA
🇺🇦Oleksandr Alieksieev
ELO 1612
FormLWWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Alieksieev
DM
🇺🇦Denys Maltsev
ELO 1604
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
🌟Maltsev stays under total as underdog 70% (27)
Fair odds · Alieksieev
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.