8 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Hovorunets
ELO 1466
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Hovorunets
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1439
FormLWWWW
53%
47%
🌟Hovorunets stays under total as favourite 74% (19)
Fair odds · Hovorunets
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+27
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.