8 Jul · 07:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Leonenko
ELO 1434
FormWLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Novakov
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1439
FormLWWWW
49%
51%
🔥 Underdog lean · Leonenko🌟Novakov rarely covers set handicap as favourite 25% (16)
Fair odds · Novakov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+5
H2H3-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.