8 Jul · 09:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Vasily Kondratenko
ELO 1452
FormLWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lipeiko
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Lipeiko
ELO 1485
FormWLWLW
46%
54%
🌟Kondratenko stays under total as underdog 64% (25)
Fair odds · Lipeiko
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+33
H2H10-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.