8 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Honcharenko
ELO 1433
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Honcharenko
VM
🇺🇦Vasyl Matviichuk
ELO 1416
FormLWLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Honcharenko
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H58-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.