8 Jul · 09:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Honcharenko
ELO 1433
FormWLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zavoloka
MZ
🇺🇦Mykola Zavoloka
ELO 1472
FormWLLLL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Zavoloka
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+39
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.