8 Jul · 18:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
OH
🇺🇦Ondrej Horak
ELO 1514
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Pavlik
AP
🇺🇦Adam Pavlik
ELO 1523
FormLWLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Pavlik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
18%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H0-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.