8 Jul · 15:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PH
🇺🇦Pavel Hala
ELO 1521
FormLLLLW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Pavlik
AP
🇺🇦Adam Pavlik
ELO 1523
FormLWLWW
50%
50%
🌟Hala covers set handicap as underdog 73% (15)
Fair odds · Pavlik
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+2
H2H12-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.