8 Jul · 14:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
VM
🇺🇦Vitalii Mukhin
ELO 1456
FormWWLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mukhin
MK
🇺🇦Mykhailo Khalenko
ELO 1447
FormWLWLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Mukhin
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+9
H2H2-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.