8 Jul · 16:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SP
🇺🇦Serhii Prus
ELO 1546
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Prus
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1535
FormLLLWW
51%
49%
🌟Fashchevskyi goes over total as underdog 78% (23)
Fair odds · Prus
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+11
H2H11-18
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.