8 Jul · 16:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ON
🇺🇦Oleksandr Naida
ELO 1466
FormLLWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Derevynskyi
DD
🇺🇦Dmytro Derevynskyi
ELO 1544
FormLWLWL
42%
58%
🌟Naida stays under total as underdog 67% (27)
Fair odds · Derevynskyi
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~74 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+78
H2H44-38
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+78)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (44-38)