8 Jul · 11:45 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MV
🇺🇦Miroslav Vana
ELO 1477
FormLLWLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Vana
JB
🇺🇦Jan Blazek
ELO 1391
FormWLLLL
59%
41%
🔥 Underdog lean · Blazek🌟Blazek covers set handicap as underdog 67% (12)
Fair odds · Vana
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H12-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (12-10)