8 Jul · 09:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1504
FormWLLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Fencl
PF
🇺🇦Pavel Fencl
ELO 1509
FormWLLWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Fencl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.27· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H3-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.