8 Jul · 18:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maksymiv
ELO 1626
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Maksymiv
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Sukovatyi
ELO 1588
FormWLWLW
54%
46%
🔥 Underdog lean · Sukovatyi🌟Maksymiv rarely covers set handicap as favourite 35% (43)
Fair odds · Maksymiv
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+38
H2H18-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.