8 Jul · 16:45 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SR
🇺🇦Stepan Rejent
ELO 1522
FormWWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kocvara
MK
🇺🇦Martin Kocvara
ELO 1556
FormWLLLL
46%
54%
🌟Rejent covers set handicap as underdog 79% (24)
Fair odds · Kocvara
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 28% · 3.58· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~80 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+34
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.