8 Jul · 16:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OV
🇺🇦Oleg Varlamov
ELO 1516
FormLWWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Zhyrnov
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Zhyrnov
ELO 1556
FormLWLWW
46%
54%
🌟Varlamov covers set handicap as underdog 72% (18)
Fair odds · Zhyrnov
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H24-19
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.