8 Jul · 10:50 MESZLow · Coin Flip
YL
🇺🇦Yurii Leymanovsky
ELO 1588
FormWWLWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Leymanovsky
VM
🇺🇦Vitalii S Marushchak
ELO 1583
FormWWWLW
50%
50%
🌟Marushchak covers set handicap as underdog 63% (30)
Fair odds · Leymanovsky
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H0-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.