8 Jul · 17:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DD
🇺🇦Dmytro Derevynskyi
ELO 1544
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Derevynskyi
RG
🇺🇦Roman Gnoevoy
ELO 1536
FormWLLWW
51%
49%
🌟Gnoevoy covers set handicap as underdog 64% (25)
Fair odds · Derevynskyi
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
18%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H36-39
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.