8 Jul · 19:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
OM
🇺🇦Oleksandr Melashenko
ELO 1466
FormWWLLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Gnoevoy
RG
🇺🇦Roman Gnoevoy
ELO 1536
FormWLLWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Gnoevoy
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~74 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+70
H2H23-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-8)