8 Jul · 18:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MP
🇺🇦Mykhailo Potapov
ELO 1536
FormLLWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Potapov
IF
🇺🇦Ivan Fashchevskyi
ELO 1535
FormLLLWW
50%
50%
🌟Fashchevskyi goes over total as underdog 78% (23)
Fair odds · Potapov
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H8-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.