8 Jul · 07:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
JR
🇺🇦Jan Rochowanski
ELO 1543
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Burylov
VB
🇺🇦Volodymyr Burylov
ELO 1550
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Burylov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+7
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.