8 Jul · 17:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PP
🇺🇦Petr Provaznik
ELO 1529
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Provaznik
AP
🇺🇦Adam Pavlik
ELO 1523
FormLWLWW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Provaznik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H11-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.