8 Jul · 14:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maksymiv
ELO 1626
FormLLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Maksymiv
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1606
FormWWWLL
52%
48%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pohonov🌟Pohonov covers set handicap as underdog 67% (18)
Fair odds · Maksymiv
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+20
H2H20-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.