8 Jul · 17:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
PH
🇺🇦Pavel Hala
ELO 1521
FormLLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Provaznik
PP
🇺🇦Petr Provaznik
ELO 1529
FormLWLWL
49%
51%
🌟Hala covers set handicap as underdog 73% (15)
Fair odds · Provaznik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~75 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H16-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.