8 Jul · 23:15 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ON
🇺🇦Oleh Napirko
ELO 1469
FormLLLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Smyrnov
MS
🇺🇦Mykyta Smyrnov
ELO 1474
FormWLLLL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Smyrnov
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+5
H2H24-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.