9 Jul · 12:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1493
FormWWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Maliuk
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Miroshnychenko
ELO 1409
FormLLWLW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Maliuk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+84
H2H32-22
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+84)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (32-22)