9 Jul · 06:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
IS
🇺🇦Ihor Sukovatyi
ELO 1590
FormLWLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Pohonov
OP
🇺🇦Oleksandr Pohonov
ELO 1593
FormWLWLL
50%
50%
🔥 Underdog lean · Pohonov🌟Sukovatyi covers set handicap as underdog 67% (33)
Fair odds · Pohonov
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
3-1
19%
3-2
18%
2-3
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+3
H2H27-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.