9 Jul · 07:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇺🇦Jan Rochowanski
ELO 1551
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Rochowanski
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1516
FormWLWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Rochowanski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+35
H2H3-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.