9 Jul · 08:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
SH
🇺🇦Serhii Hovorunets
ELO 1458
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Hovorunets
VK
🇺🇦Vasily Kondratenko
ELO 1450
FormLLLLW
51%
49%
🌟Hovorunets stays under total as favourite 68% (25)
Fair odds · Hovorunets
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 36% · 2.81· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
1-3
19%
2-3
18%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+8
H2H4-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.