9 Jul · 08:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ziakun
ELO 1469
FormWWLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Maliuk
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1493
FormWWLLL
47%
53%
🌟Ziakun covers set handicap as underdog 64% (50)
Fair odds · Maliuk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+24
H2H21-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.