10 Jul · 10:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
VK
🇺🇦Vasily Kondratenko
ELO 1434
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Novakov
DN
🇺🇦Daniil Novakov
ELO 1451
FormLLWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Novakov
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+17
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.